I Knew Things Were Bad, But Not This Bad

By | December 5, 2019

Everybody is grumpy because it’s been five consecutive months that bitcoin has either a) done diddly-squat or b) declined:

For all of 2019, there have only been THREE months where bitcoin has recorded a gain of more than 20%. That’s not enough for the go-go crowd and already my Twitter is lit with people announcing they are quiting crypto.

But guess what, that’s not a bad streak. From August of 2018 to January 2019, bitcoin declined SIX months in a row.

Want more cheery news? From July 2014 to May 2015, in the span of eleven months, bitcoin had only TWO months with a positive return (February, 14%, and November, 16%).

The other NINE months showed declines anywhere from -28% to -4%. FOUR of those months showed declines of 15% or more.

Folks, there is a reason why this blog is not my day job.

I can write about the great promise of crypto until my fingers seize up from carpal tunnel syndrome but this whole sector is a Wild West speculative casino when it’s not a flaming dumpster fire
It’s much like investing in internet companies in the late 1990s. Or investing in small-cap stocks this year.

If it makes you feel better, pretty much every investing sector outside of the S&P 500 felt the burn in 2019

Here is the most interesting chart of the day:

For those old enough to remember, if you were a tech investor in the year 2000, you looked like a genius.

If you were a resource investor, you were a bum.

Then 2001 came along and the NASDAQ fell from 5000 to under 2000 and gold went to $1500.

And commodities soared. Gold hit $1500. Oil briefly touched $100 a barrel. Resources stocks in the junior markets were gold mines (literally).

As I enter my sixtieth decade existence and my fourth decade of investing (where did the time go?), I think it’s appropriate to quote Ecclesiastes:

All things are full of weariness;
a man cannot utter it;
the eye is not satisfied with seeing,
nor the ear filled with hearing.

What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.

Big rally coming in resources, I can smell it. I don’t know when in 2020, but it’s going to happen.

The big question is whether bitcoin will join in that rally.

I don’t know. We’ll see.