September is the worst month of the year for bitcoin.
Since 2013, the aggregate monthly return for bitcoin in September has been MINUS 39%. There are only two other months in the year that show a negative return for bitcoin: January (minus 22%) and June (minus 7%).
Already in the last week of August, bitcoin is starting to trend down.
Disasters never strike in September, as the worst month was in 2014, with a return of “only” minus 20%.
But nothing good ever happens either. The best September ever was in 2016, with a positive return of a measly 7%.
Good time to sell if you believe in historical patterns. But do not wait too long to get back in.
October and November, are the two best months to be invested in bitcoin, with aggregate monthly returns of 235% and 525%, respectively since 2013.
As a matter of fact, those two months have an aggregate return of 760% since 2013. If you sum the rest of the months together, you also get an aggregate return of…760%.
So, what do you do? On one hand, history tells you now is a good time to sell.
On the other hand, if the fourth quarter bull run starts just one week earlier this year, then you could miss out.
As for myself, I am staying on board. But I sure will not be doing any leveraged trades.
It will probably be a bumpy ride for the next few weeks.
DJ
