Hello Dear Reader.
Welcome to my world.
The world where you thought your assets were safe, your pension secure, and your savings guaranteed: That world is gone, perhaps forever.
Now everything is crypto.
Guess which asset dropped 2.5% this month?
Bitcoin. And September is supposed to be a lousy month for bitcoin.
But what dropped 19% this month?
The British pound, against the US dollar:
It could be that the two things are related:
Meanwhile, Ethereum dropped 15% this month from 1587 to 1335.
Not as good as bitcoin, but still better than the British pound.
Oh, sure you say, that’s one month, but crypto has had a lousy year.
That’s true. Year-to-date, bitcoin is down 59% and Ethereum is down 65%.
But look at this list:
Those are your tech “blue chips”. Year-to-date bitcoin would rank #8 on that list and Ethereum would rank #11, on a list of 20.
Not bad for a double dose of rat poison, as Charlie Munger would say.
I’m not gloating. I’m saying welcome stranger, to the house of crypto.
Beer is in the fridge, Scotch is in the cupboard to the left. You will need both.
What’s that you say? You don’t want to be here? Do you find this place both unsettling and unpleasant?
No, I don’t take that as an insult. This house scares me occasionally as well.
Absolutely, the Terra Luna debacle this summer was most upsetting. We lost many good friends.
The 2020 COVID plunge was harrowing. The 2018 crash wiped out a generation.
In the house of crypto, there have always been monsters under the bed. And sometimes they come out from under the bed.
But there are many good places to hide in this house when the demons run amok.
The closet of USDC stablecoin was most kind to me these last six months.
Why do I stay in this house? Because when times are good, they are fabulous, and they make up for the bad times.
Yes, yes, I know, times are NOT good right now. They are bad. And you want to leave.
But I have some bad news for you.
It’s now apparent, in every house, there are monsters under the bed:
Here in the house of crypto, we know those monsters, almost every year we see them face-to-face.
In other houses, nobody has seen monsters for years, even for decades.
But now they have come out. And they are hungry.
Many investors are still in denial. Many will stay in denial up to the moment they read their quarterly (yearly) financial statement from their personal financial advisor:
But by then, it will be too late.
As for me, I will still be here, in this house. There is a certain joy, an exuberance in running from room to room, dodging the monsters with a Scotch in one hand and a mouse in the other.
Time to leave the USDC closet, pour myself a Scotch, and start running again. September is always gloomy in the house of crypto. But Octobers can be glorious.
Back in the game.