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Groundhog Day Comes To Crypto

The 1993 movie Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray is a comedy classic. If you have never watched it, you should put it on your bucket list

The plot of the movie is simple, the character Bill Murray plays is stuck in an endless time loop where the same day is repeated over and over again, and he must figure out how to escape.

And that of course, brings us to the news that China has banned crypto, AGAIN.

If you are wondering, whataminute, didn’t China ban bitcoin just last May?

Yes, that’s true, except this time it’s a different kind of ban. This time they are really, really serious.

Just kidding.

The whole “China bans bitcoin” story has become the running joke of crypto. People are even keeping track of “China bans” and making charts:

Like, who falls for this stuff?

Apparently some people do, as the price of bitcoin dropped about nine percent when news hit (It’s since recovered somewhat…unexpectedly).

“China bans” have been going on for YEARS. And coincidentally they always seem to happen just when quarterly futures contracts are closing, meaning those who have access to insider information can make a ton of money.

My first experience with a “China ban” was in 2017, and it was a real panic as the price of bitcoin plummeted.

But then it recovered, and boy did it ever. It went from $3k to $20k in two and half months. And I’m not the only one who remembers that.

The latest “China ban” looks to be a classic fake-out to burn the newbies before we take the next leg up.

Historically, November is the BEST month of the year for Bitcoin (793% cumulative since 2013). October, along with May is the second-best month (330% approximately, cumulative, 2013).

Even December, with the downer of quarterly contracts closing at the end of the year (leading to serious profit-taking), is still a very good month for bitcoin (83%).

The spring of 2021 was dreary, summer was dead except for the NFT craze. September was a bummer as usual (it’s the worst month of the year for bitcoin).

But in a few days, that will be all history.

Now it begins.

 
 

 

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